Advertisement

UFC Fight Night 126 co-main-event breakdown: Is Derrick Lewis rightfully the underdog to Marcin Tybura?

[jwplayer z1p0wn9C-FLu19iir]

(This story was originally published on Feb. 15, 2018.)

MMAjunkie Radio cohost and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC Fight Night 126’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event.

UFC Fight Night 126 takes place today at Frank Erwin Center in Austin, Texas, and it airs on FS1 following early prelims on UFC Fight Pass.

* * * *

Derrick Lewis (18-5-1 MMA, 3-2 UFC)

Derrick Lewis

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’3″ Age: 33 Weight: 265 lbs. Reach: 79″
  • Last fight: TKO loss to Mark Hunt (June 10, 2017)
  • Camp: 4 oz. Fight Club (Texas)
  • Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Legacy FC heavyweight title
+ Regional MMA accolades
+ 16 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Dangerous righ hands and uppercuts
+ Underrated kicks and knees
+/- Aggressive engagements and entries
^ Counter availabilities
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Improved grappling and positional awareness
^ Deceptive scrambling/getup ability
+ Devastating ground striker

Marcin Tybura (16-3 MMA, 3-6 UFC)

Marcin Tybura

Staple info:

  • Height: 6’3″ Age: 32 Weight: 247 lbs. Reach: 78″
  • Last fight: Decision loss to Fabricio Werdum (Nov. 18, 2017)
  • Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico/Poland)
  • Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Multiple heavyweight titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 7 KO victories
+ 6 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Improved striking combinations
+ Accurate kicks and knees
^ Works well off of lead leg
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Sneaky elbows and solid defense
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Well-timed takedowns
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Floats, rides, finds way to back

Summary:

The co-main event in Austin features a heavyweight showdown between Derrick Lewis and Marcin Tybura.

Lewis, a fan favorite, will be attempting to bounce back from two disappointing fight camps. With one ending in a TKO loss and the other ending with an injury before he could even make the walk, Lewis will look to make an emphatic comeback in his home state of Texas.

Seeking to spoil the homecoming is Tybura, a polish fighter who has moved shop to the United States. Coming off of a loss to former heavyweight champ Fabricio Werdum last year, Tybura is also trying to get back on the right side of the tracks.

Starting off on the feet, we have a matchup between two hard-hitting heavyweights who go about their business differently.

Despite being criticized early on for his lack of striking presence, Tybura has quietly developed a kickboxing game since coming into the UFC.

Actively prodding with a jab, Tybura will casually add in his right hand, variating between casting punches or hammerfists. Like many Eastern European and Russian kickboxers, the Pole typically punctuates combinations with kicks off of his lead leg.

When using strikes to mask his clinch entries, Tybura has shown a good sense about where potential danger may be coming from, and he does a much better job of moving his head appropriately with his punches. And considering that the 32-year-old has spent his second training camp stateside at Jackson-Wink MMA, I can only imagine that his game has continued to grow.

Potential upgrades aside, this might not be the matchup for Tybura to test his striking skills.

Enter Lewis.

Stepping onto the scene as an unabashed brawler, Lewis has shown signs of improvements underneath the scary destructions that often take place in his fights. An athletic-mover for his size, Lewis can throw accurate knees and head kicks with little signs of struggle.

A downright scary distance closer, Lewis will force his opponent into the fence whether he lands on them or not. With a frame that is hard to control in close, the 33-year-old does his best work when striking off of the breaks, and I see him being particularly potent in this space. That said, his opponent is also no slouch when it comes to exchanging in small windows.

Inside of close quarters, Tybura offers slick elbows off of forearm frames and a solid awareness of hip positioning and underhooks. The seven-year pro also possesses crafty trips and takedowns from the clinch – a path that I suspect he will take here given the dynamic of the matchup.

However, if Tybura can get this fight to the floor, you can’t count Lewis out.

Don’t let his flat back and inactive hips fool you: Similar to a sand shark lying in wait, Lewis stays calm and composed until his opposition makes for a transition; this allows him an opening to explode upward to his feet.

Although respected grapplers such as Roy Nelson and Gabriel Gonzaga failed to keep Lewis grounded or capitalize on his explosions, I believe that Tybura may have success here due to his flexibility and grappling style.

An accomplished brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Tybura has translated his game seamlessly into MMA. Doing his best work when on top, the Pole utilizes good fundamentals of position and shoulder pressure to help persuade his opposition into giving their backs.

Once Tybura can establish some form of mount, he will quickly get to work with strikes to help set up his submission efforts.

Still, it will be no easy task to tax Lewis in transit. Lewis’ tripod get-up is deceptively more technical than meets the eye. As someone who favors turtling out to stand, a person who knows how to tripod properly can be a nightmare to deal with in both grappling and MMA.

Keeping his base firmly beneath him, Lewis will maintain an angle on his back that resembles a steep ski slope. Although this tripod position invites back-takes to the naked eye, the downward slope Lewis keeps serves as a trap, making eager back-takers ultimately slide forward and lose position.

Regardless of who ends up with the high ground, each man will have to fight hard for what they get in this fight.

The oddsmakers and public seem somewhat split on opinions, listing Tybura -145 and Lewis +125 as of this writing.

Given the popularity of Lewis, I would not be surprised to see this line move closer to even money as the fight nears. Lewis’ lovability aside, he’s a dangerous fighter who has the skills to win this battle.

He closes the distance faster than Tybura and can punctuate exchanges much more emphatically. Even on the ground, Lewis can kill the chances of a far superior grappler with the power he can generate with his ground strikes.

That said, as much as I’m a fan of Lewis’ style, it can often be difficult to predict what version of the black beast we are going to get. More importantly, I wonder what adjustments Lewis will make if he is forced to do so.

In Lewis’ fight with Shamil Abdurakhimov, he repeatedly got taken down off of caught kicks. Failing to adjust, Lewis lost points and momentum until eventually finding a finish come the fourth round. Considering that Tybura seems to have a knack for catching kicks and countering, I predict we may see more of the same here. The pick is Tybura to slow things down to the dismay of the fans with a win by unanimous decision.

Official pick: Tybura by decision

For more on UFC Fight Night 126, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.

[sigallery id=”48aXVgPQNHykkthTawLLrS” title=”Marcin Tybura” type=”sigallery”]

Be sure to visit the MMA Junkie Instagram page and YouTube channel to discuss this and more content with fans of mixed martial arts.

More Bellator