This Saturday, UFC 162 will look to host one of the biggest middleweight title fights the UFC has known as undefeated stand-out Chris Weidman battles long-time middleweight kingpin Anderson Silva. Also on the card is a plethora of outstanding match-ups, including Frankie Edgar’s first non-title fight in 3 ½ years. But before we start breaking into some of the match-ups, let’s take a look at what Vegas has to say about this weekend’s PPV card.

UFC 162 Betting Odds (via mmaplayground.com)

Chris Weidman +235

Anderson Silva -255

 

Frankie Edgar -750

Charles Oliveira +710

 

Tim Kennedy -105

Roger Gracie +105

 

Mark Munoz -110

Tim Boetsch +100

 

Dennis Siver +205

Cub Swanson -230

 

Chris Leben -100

Andrew Craig -130

 

Kazuki Tokudome +370

Norman Parke -410

 

Gabriel Gonzaga -230

Dave Herman +230

 

Rafaello Oliveira +850

Edson Barboza -900

 

Seth Baczynski -600

Brian Melancon +560

 

David Mitchell +620

Mike Pierce -680

 

Smart Bets 

David Mitchell over Mike Pierce at +620

Okay, first of all, these are HUGE odds; very low-risk, but high reward, and most importantly, very realistic. Mike Pierce is on a decent 3-fight win streak, and looking to break into the upper-echelon of the division, but don’t let that fool you, Pierce can still lose this fight very easily. David Mitchell is an excellent grappler who can pull off sneaky submissions, and against a brute-force wrestler like Pierce, he’ll have several opportunities to pull off a submission.

Mark Munoz over Tim Boetsch at -100

 

While this isn’t a very profitable pick, it’s definitely smart. After seeing Munoz’s recent success in his diet and overcoming of depression, it’s not crazy to think that Mark has perhaps turned his career around. While he was once a rising contender, he still has the skills and time to get become one again. Against a hard-nosed veteran like Tim Boetsch, look for Munoz’ wrestling and pace to get the better of an out-matched opponent.

Charles Oliveira over Frankie Edgar at +710

 

Another case where we have some extreme odds, but a very realistic possibility to see an upset. Charles Oliveira will return to the Octagon after having a long layoff to face the several-time title challenger, Frankie Edgar. While you may look at this match-up and think, “what a mismatch”, think again; Oliveira is one of the slickest ground specialists in the featherweight division. But I don’t think it’s his ground game that makes him a viable pick, it’s his striking. Oliveira has a very Muay Thai-based striking approach, which we’ve seen effective against Edgar in his latest bout against Jose Aldo. Now, Oliveira is no Jose Aldo, but by combining the similar style, the reach advantage, and the threatening ground game of Oliveira, you have an opponent worthy of better odds than +710.

Chris Weidman over Anderson Silva at +235

And finally, the main event. Being marketed as “Anderson’s toughest opponent to date”, Chris Weidman has every tool needed to dethrone the long-time champion. On paper, Weidman is a nightmare match-up for Anderson. You saw what Chael Sonnen was able to do in their first encounter. Through hard-nosed aggression, a consistent game plan, and a rock solid mental game, Sonnen was able to man-handle Anderson for 4 ½ rounds before his lack of submission defense got the better of him. Chris Weidman combines the same approach with expert level grappling, and a lengthy stand up game, and will look to do what Chael Sonnen would not have been able to do; finish him. Weidman may not have all the experience in the world, or have the most charismatic personality, but he has the skills and mentality to pull off the victory this Saturday night.