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You can't win! (UFC 152)

PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 5:19 pm
by irishmike357
"You can't win!"


We all know the scene. Rocky is telling Adrian that he is going to fight Ivan Drago, right after Drago killed Apollo Creed. Adrian, trying to convince her husband not to fight the unbeatable killing machine, screams at her husband, "YOU CAN'T WIN". Typical Rocky ignores her and bests his opponent.

This is a segment dedicated to those guys that are fighting an opponent Adrian would tell them they can't beat.

This could also be called the Matt Serra, Frankie Edgar, Fabricio Werdum, New York Giants section.

We will take a look at how the +6.25 to 1 underdog, Vitor Belfort, can beat the overwhelming favorite, Jon Jones. This is not a prediction post; just a look at how an underdog can win.

Striking:

90% of fights go to the ground, but they all start standing. Jon Jones has a massive reach and size advantage over Vitor Belfort, but I think that may actually hurt him in this fight. You see, when a fighter constantly has a large reach advantage he really does not develop head movement. Instead they rely on their range and often get caught with punches when that range is taken away. Look at Stefan Struve as an example. Huge reach, but no head movement and when some one gets on the inside he gets rocked hard. Jones is no different. You can see it in almost all of his fights. He does great from the outside, and uses his wrestling on the inside, but there is a transition and in that middle ground is where his opponents land the most punches.

Vitor has very fast hands and excellent technique. His footwork has allowed him to get inside on much faster and more skilled opponents than Jones. Look at the Anderson Silva fight. At 2:18 Vitor uses his speed to get inside on a backpeddling Silva. At 2:04 Vitor uses his speed to close the distance after a head kick and again get inside. Now I know Vitor didn't beat Silva, but Silva has much better head movement than Jones. This is just one example of how fast Vitor is, getting on the inside against one of the fastest fighters around.

If you watch the last 5 years of Vitors fights, you can literally see his stance changing; it opens up and becomes more of a karate stance. He started training karate again, living with his instructor during training camps and even training with Lyoto Machida down in Belem, Brazil. This stance allows Vitor to move in and out of danger like Machida and will help counter Jones' reach.

Grappling:
The strong suit of Jones will be his grappling. He will look to press Vitor against the cage and try to use his greco roman wrestling to get him down. Despite what people think of Jones, he is not perfect. He tries a lot of Judo style foot sweeps and legs trips but does not succeed. A great example is against Rampage in round 1. Vitor will have to try to stay off the cage though and punch his way out of the clinch, something that not many of Jones' opponents have done. Staying standing will be the key for Vitor as Jones uses his reach very well on the ground to GnP his opponents in brutal fashion.

There are a few question marks about Jones' ground game, though. For one he has never been on the ground against a grappler of Vitor's skill. The other thing I notice about Jones' ground game is because of his range and propensity to look to rain down vicious elbows he does not keep his weight on his opponent. I wonder if the speed that Vitor has will help him regain his feet once on the ground. For Vitor's sake though, hopefully we don't find out come the 22nd.

X Factor:
There are several X factors that can help Vitor win this fight. First of all he is training with Rashad Evans. Evans knows Jon Jones and more importantly knows Greg Jackson. He will be able to help Vitor come up with a counter game plan to help him overcome what ever plan Jackson comes up with.

The mental factor is another one that will help Vitor. Jones has been talking about Chael, Hendo, Dana White, Rashad Evans and everyone else that is not Vitor. He is definitely not focusing on the fact that he has a very dangerous opponent in front of him. Vitor how ever is extremely focused on what's at hand. In the past Vitor has been called mentally weak, but since this issue with his sister has been put to bed (in August 2007) he has gone 6-1 with 5 finishes. He has found God, and whether you believe in a higher power or not, it has helped him mentally a tremendous amount. He rebounded from the worst KO of his career by beating his next two opponents in the first round.

Experience is the last x factor that will help Vitor. He has faced legendary wrestlers, fighters much larger than him, great strikers, great grapplers and been in every situation you can be in. Jones has never faced anyone with Vitor's speed and has not been on the ground with a grappler with Vitor's ability.

I am not saying that Vitor will win, but just because he is a huge underdog does not mean you should count him out. MMA history is filled with huge underdogs. Werdum was a 6 to 1 underdog against Fedor and won; he was a 5 to 1 favorite against JDS and lost. Come fight night fighters have a 50% chance to win (not counting draws and NCs of course).

Re: You can't win! (UFC 152)

PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2012 1:54 am
by blackmetalcarson
Excellent! I think people really forget in Jones' domination over his opponents how dangerous Vitor really is.

Re: You can't win! (UFC 152)

PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2012 11:52 am
by duallie
you make good points.
and there is always a chance for anything in a fight.

but let's not forget that jones is improving in every fight.
he's showing us new things every time he steps in there, and has adapted to very different, dangerous opponents.
i mean, he left lyoto looking dead on the mat.
it was epic how he just let go of him and that lifeless body fell to the ground.
and that was lyoto fucking machida.
while there is a chance that vitor could potentially catch jones with a flurry, my prediction is that vitor will be a mess.

Re: You can't win! (UFC 152)

PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2012 12:07 pm
by BrdrOkm69

War Vitor.

Re: You can't win! (UFC 152)

PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2012 1:31 pm
by willmma
irishmike357 wrote:"You can't win!"


We all know the scene. Rocky is telling Adrian that he is going to fight Ivan Drago, right after Drago killed Apollo Creed. Adrian, trying to convince her husband not to fight the unbeatable killing machine, screams at her husband, "YOU CAN'T WIN". Typical Rocky ignores her and bests his opponent.

This is a segment dedicated to those guys that are fighting an opponent Adrian would tell them they can't beat.

This could also be called the Matt Serra, Frankie Edgar, Fabricio Werdum, New York Giants section.



Can we include the Toronto Maple Leafs to that list?

BECAUSE LOCKOUT OR NOT THEY ARE WINNING THE STANLEY CUP THIS YEAR!! :twisted: :twisted:
And nobody can tell me otherwise

Re: You can't win! (UFC 152)

PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2012 1:50 pm
by irishmike357
duallie wrote:you make good points.
and there is always a chance for anything in a fight.

but let's not forget that jones is improving in every fight.
he's showing us new things every time he steps in there, and has adapted to very different, dangerous opponents.
i mean, he left lyoto looking dead on the mat.
it was epic how he just let go of him and that lifeless body fell to the ground.
and that was lyoto fucking machida.
while there is a chance that vitor could potentially catch jones with a flurry, my prediction is that vitor will be a mess.

Yeah, I am not discounting Jones, he is the favorite for a reason. Just want to shed some light on how some underdogs can pose a threat to favorites.


As for the choking out Machida thing. Not saying that was not impressive, cause it was, but Tito Ortiz almost did the same thing lol.

Re: You can't win! (UFC 152)

PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:56 pm
by KingOfPancrase
Well written Mike. This is the only thing I want Vitor to do for me:

Re: You can't win! (UFC 152)

PostPosted: Wed Sep 19, 2012 3:16 pm
by The White Knight
If vitor catches him coming in while jones sits there with his arm stretched out he could definatly follow him down with 5 or 6 clean shots to the back of jones head :biggrin: that would be ideal

Re: You can't win! (UFC 152)

PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 12:11 am
by BestWayKilla
willmma wrote:
irishmike357 wrote:"You can't win!"


We all know the scene. Rocky is telling Adrian that he is going to fight Ivan Drago, right after Drago killed Apollo Creed. Adrian, trying to convince her husband not to fight the unbeatable killing machine, screams at her husband, "YOU CAN'T WIN". Typical Rocky ignores her and bests his opponent.

This is a segment dedicated to those guys that are fighting an opponent Adrian would tell them they can't beat.

This could also be called the Matt Serra, Frankie Edgar, Fabricio Werdum, New York Giants section.



Can we include the Toronto Maple Leafs to that list?

BECAUSE LOCKOUT OR NOT THEY ARE WINNING THE STANLEY CUP THIS YEAR!! :twisted: :twisted:
And nobody can tell me otherwise

Ah yes, the everlasting torment of being a Leafs fan. Here I am, lamenting my lot in life as an American hockey fan cursed to have no hockey to watch during the lockout, and I had forgotten what real suffering was :lol:

Great post by the way, Mike.

Re: You can't win! (UFC 152)

PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 12:37 am
by willmma
BestWayKilla wrote:
willmma wrote:
irishmike357 wrote:"You can't win!"


We all know the scene. Rocky is telling Adrian that he is going to fight Ivan Drago, right after Drago killed Apollo Creed. Adrian, trying to convince her husband not to fight the unbeatable killing machine, screams at her husband, "YOU CAN'T WIN". Typical Rocky ignores her and bests his opponent.

This is a segment dedicated to those guys that are fighting an opponent Adrian would tell them they can't beat.

This could also be called the Matt Serra, Frankie Edgar, Fabricio Werdum, New York Giants section.



Can we include the Toronto Maple Leafs to that list?

BECAUSE LOCKOUT OR NOT THEY ARE WINNING THE STANLEY CUP THIS YEAR!! :twisted: :twisted:
And nobody can tell me otherwise

Ah yes, the everlasting torment of being a Leafs fan. Here I am, lamenting my lot in life as an American hockey fan cursed to have no hockey to watch during the lockout, and I had forgotten what real suffering was :lol:

Great post by the way, Mike.



Thanks for understanding :|

Re: You can't win! (UFC 152)

PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 1:02 am
by BestWayKilla
willmma wrote:
BestWayKilla wrote:
willmma wrote:
irishmike357 wrote:"You can't win!"


We all know the scene. Rocky is telling Adrian that he is going to fight Ivan Drago, right after Drago killed Apollo Creed. Adrian, trying to convince her husband not to fight the unbeatable killing machine, screams at her husband, "YOU CAN'T WIN". Typical Rocky ignores her and bests his opponent.

This is a segment dedicated to those guys that are fighting an opponent Adrian would tell them they can't beat.

This could also be called the Matt Serra, Frankie Edgar, Fabricio Werdum, New York Giants section.



Can we include the Toronto Maple Leafs to that list?

BECAUSE LOCKOUT OR NOT THEY ARE WINNING THE STANLEY CUP THIS YEAR!! :twisted: :twisted:
And nobody can tell me otherwise

Ah yes, the everlasting torment of being a Leafs fan. Here I am, lamenting my lot in life as an American hockey fan cursed to have no hockey to watch during the lockout, and I had forgotten what real suffering was :lol:

Great post by the way, Mike.



Thanks for understanding :|

I've been through the Down Goes Brown archives, I know how you feel.

Re: You can't win! (UFC 152)

PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 1:28 am
by irishmike357
KingOfPancrase wrote:Well written Mike. This is the only thing I want Vitor to do for me:

Great scene.

Re: You can't win! (UFC 152)

PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 6:00 pm
by Brickbat
Vitor will punch downward with extreme prejudice crushing JJ's brain-stem whilst he does his bitch-ass spider crawl entrance. Vitor will be DQ'd but it won't matter. . .

Re: You can't win! (UFC 152)

PostPosted: Thu Nov 23, 2017 4:38 am
by EvilGorilla69+1
Brickbat wrote:Vitor will kick downward with extreme prejudice crushing JJ's brain-stem whilst he does his bitch-ass spider crawl entrance. Vitor will be DQ'd but it won't matter. . .



megatron is a prophete.